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Brazilian financial assets fell sharply as the real dropped 2.3% to 3.9531 per dollar, a near six-month low, and the Bovespa slid about 3.5%. Investors worried that delays to President Bolsonaro's pension reform could force the central bank to raise rates, and interest rate futures priced in a hike within a year.
The central bank announced a $1 billion spot dollar sale to slow the currency slide.
A weaker real makes Brazilian soybeans, corn and meal cheaper for export buyers, which tends to pressure US and global prices of these commodities. Rising Brazilian rates would also raise financing costs for the feed and livestock sector.
reuters.comJamie McGeeverMar 28, 2019After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
