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The Brazilian real fell about 3.2% on Wednesday to R$3.99 per dollar, its weakest level of the year. The Brazilian equity market dropped 5.62% after five months of outperformance.
The sell-off is attributed to profit taking and weakening investor confidence in Bolsonaro's economic reforms, especially pensions.
A sharp real decline lowers the cost of Brazilian grain and meal exports, which can weigh on world soy and corn prices. The article argues the currency is unlikely to collapse further, so the pressure may be moderate.
forbes.comKenneth RapozaMar 28, 2019After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
