
The Brazilian real fell sharply after a 3.91% drop on Friday and a further 1.44% decline on Monday, with its depreciation reaching its highest level since the start of the pandemic. The move reflected a stronger dollar as well as political tensions in Brasilia, including a presidential pardon of an allied congressman.
A weaker real can make Brazilian soybean and corn exports cheaper in dollar terms, which can add competitive pressure on world feed grain and meal prices.
After 273 past bearish macro events, SOY moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, DXY moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 301 past bullish macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Directly describes the BRL slide into 2022-04-25, citing a stronger dollar and Brasilia political tensions (presidential pardon) that hit sentiment and drove the further Monday decline.
A further 1.44% BRL decline on Monday amid a strong dollar and domestic political tension (presidential pardon) added to the depreciation via risk premium.