
The spread between US and German 2-year yields reached 314 basis points on May 16, its widest since March 1989. The move followed strong US data and market bets on three to four Fed hikes this year, while euro-zone growth slowed.
Widening yield differentials pull capital toward the dollar and weigh on the euro, which can raise US export prices for euro-zone feed buyers. The effect on grain and oilseed prices is indirect and mainly runs through currency movements.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.