U.S. wheat prices mostly about Russia these days

After 13 past bearish macro events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.1%), and -2.0% over 20.

• Mar 22, 2017Increased competition for U.S. wheat producers.-3.3%
• Mar 26, 2026Outlook for US wheat: fewer acres, lower production | Baking Business-0.6%
• Nov 14, 2024Rising dollar and rain forecasts weigh on US wheat+3.9%
• Oct 29, 2022Corn, wheat sag on firm dollar, concerns over US export demand - Markets - Business Recorder+3.1%
• Jun 24, 2016U.S. grains: Soy, corn drop on Brexit fallout - Grainews-5.5%

After 69 past bearish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -2.6% to +0.8%), and -0.7% over 20.

• Oct 24, 2016Wheat prices sink nearly three percent-2.0%
• Nov 23, 2016Wheat prices shed nearly one percent as eyes fixed on Fed's minutes-2.9%
• Jun 5, 2020GRAINS-Wheat falls as dollar bounces; soy firms on export business — Spot On Oklahoma-0.7%
• Oct 27, 2026Wheat Prices Slip As A Stronger Dollar Tests Exports - Finimize-0.2%
• Jun 28, 2016EU wheat prices weaken as firmer euro dents export outlook-2.7%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Oct 24, 2016Wheat prices sink nearly three percent+0.2%
• Oct 5, 2022U.S. dollar rallied Wednesday. What about other currencies?+1.6%
• Oct 11, 2022An Update on the Economy and Monetary Policy: Perseverance in Returning to Price Stability+0.3%
• Aug 1, 2019Gold prices slip to two-week low as US Fed dashes hopes of more rate cuts+1.1%
• Nov 23, 2016Wheat prices shed nearly one percent as eyes fixed on Fed's minutes+0.3%