
The Andersons' Matt Murphy told the North American Millers' Association conference that US wheat exports will likely decline in 2026-27 as normalized global trade flows and large world supplies return. US exports had their strongest first four months in a decade in 2025-26 due to competitive pricing and disruptions in competing regions.
Expected weaker export demand and large global supplies keep US wheat prices under pressure, despite lower production, limiting bullish upside for feed buyers.
After 69 past bearish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -2.6% to +0.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 13 past bearish macro events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.1%), and -2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.