
European wheat on Euronext fell about 2% to 214.75 euros a ton as the euro strengthened against the dollar. Support came from a Sovecon cut to Russian export forecasts on expected stricter Russian export quotas.
A stronger euro makes EU wheat more expensive in dollar terms and less competitive against Black Sea supplies, while Russian export quota tightening offers partial support.
After 69 past bearish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -2.6% to +0.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.