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An Oklahoma State University analysis says U.S. hard red winter wheat prices remain below $4.00 due to growing competition from Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Argentina, plus a strong dollar. Average world wheat yields have risen about 8 bushels per acre since 2007.
Rising global yields and competing exporters keep wheat prices depressed, and the outlook could worsen over the next few years.
After 13 past bearish macro events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.1%), and -2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.