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Several countries intervened in currency markets as the dollar rallied, with Denmark raising its rate 15 basis points to support its crown, and Russia and Brazil buying dollars directly. South Africa did not rule out emergency interventions, and speculation grew of a coordinated G7 move.
Heavy FX intervention and possible G7 action signal market stress that can drive volatility in dollar-priced grains and oilseeds. A coordinated move to weaken the dollar would be supportive for US export commodities.
reuters.comKarin StroheckerMar 20, 2020After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 78 past neutral macro events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
