Dollar sinks to four-year low as intervention risk lifts yen

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Jan 25, 2026Dollar slips across the board as intervention risk lifts yen | Reuters-0.8%
• Feb 1, 2026Yen jumps in broad hit to dollar as Japan intervention risks grow+0.3%
• Jul 31, 2026Dollar slips against yen as intervention risks drag | Reuters-0.1%
• Jan 27, 2026Dollar sinks to four-year low, Trump brushes off the decline | Reuters+0.3%
• Apr 30, 2026Yen jumps on intervention threat as dollar pulls back-0.8%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 78 past neutral macro events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and -0.6% over 20.

• Mar 20, 2020Dollar rampage spurs FX interventions, speculation of big G7 move-0.6%
• Feb 3, 2025Mexican peso rallies after touching 3-year low as tariffs delayed+0.6%
• Nov 22, 2024International corn market pressured by strong dollar-2.0%
• Mar 19, 2019Argentina Is Anxious for Soy Dollars. Farmers Won’t Play Ball - Bloomberg-0.3%
• Jul 25, 2023Argentine IMF concessions risk further fueling red hot inflation-13.4%

After 50 past neutral macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.8% over 20.

• Mar 20, 2020Dollar rampage spurs FX interventions, speculation of big G7 move+4.4%
• Mar 19, 2019Argentina Is Anxious for Soy Dollars. Farmers Won’t Play Ball - Bloomberg+0.1%
• Nov 16, 2023Strong dollar inflows support Brazilian real-2.1%
• Oct 30, 2024Argentina's Milei Taps Unseasonal Source in Search of Dollars: Shock Therapy | Financial Post+3.0%
• Feb 8, 2018China's Yuan Toppled From Two-Year High as Trade Data Surprises - Bloomberg+3.5%