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Wheat futures gained briefly on short covering the week of October 23 but stalled below the 50-day average in Chicago. The US dollar rose to around $95 index level, making US wheat less competitive for export.
IGC raised its 2017-18 world wheat production estimate slightly to 748.5 million tonnes.
A stronger dollar reduces US export competitiveness and pressures wheat and feed grain prices, while a small upward revision to world supply adds bearish weight.
agweek.comRay Grabanski, Progressive AgOct 29, 2017After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 13 past bearish macro events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.1%), and -2.0% over 20.
After 69 past bearish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -2.6% to +0.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
