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US stocks rallied to a record high as Middle East tensions eased, US and China reportedly signed a new trade deal, and the oil price fell 12.2% during the week, its biggest weekly decline in two years. South African economic data showed PPI falling and unemployment rising.
A sharp drop in crude oil reduces energy and freight costs for feed production and weakens the case for higher soyoil and biofuel-linked prices, while the US-China deal supports export demand for US farm goods.
stanlib.comKevin LingsJun 30, 2025After 312 past bearish macro events, BRENT moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, WTI moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 40 past bearish macro events, SBO moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -4.5% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 123 past bullish macro events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
