
October WTI closed down slightly on Friday as the dollar index rallied to a two-week high and larger crude volumes moved through the Strait of Hormuz. Persian Gulf oil exports were reported at about two-thirds of pre-war levels.
Reports that Venezuela may leave OPEC added to pressure.
A stronger dollar and rising Gulf supply lower crude and energy input costs, easing feed production expenses. A price war risk within OPEC adds further downside pressure.
After 565 past bearish macro events, WTI moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, DXY moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.