Dollar index hits 13-month high on hawkish Fed, shaky Middle East outlook

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, DXY moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Apr 22, 2022U.S. dollar hits more than 2-year high on aggressive Fed hike outlook+2.5%
• Jun 24, 2026U.S. dollar rises to 13-month high on Fed rate hike views-0.1%
• Dec 13, 2024Dollar set for best week in a month on cautious Fed outlook for 2025+1.3%
• Oct 14, 2026Dollar hits fresh 18-month high as hot inflation boosts Fed hike expectation-0.3%
• Jun 23, 2026Dollar climbs to 13-month high on Fed hike bets, safe-haven bid | Reuters+0.3%

After 533 past bearish macro events, EURUSD moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Sep 17, 2020Dollar edges higher as Fed outlook lifts U.S. yields | Financial Post-1.3%
• Sep 28, 2018Dollar gains on euro woes, Fed rate outlook-1.4%
• Sep 28, 2023Dollar index powers to 10-month high - Business & Finance - Business Recorder+0.1%
• Apr 16, 2024Dollar hits 5-month high against euro; yen weakest since 1990+0.1%
• Nov 16, 2016Dollar index surges to 14-year high-1.0%

After 323 past bullish macro events, BRENT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Sep 14, 2026Dollar gains as Middle East conflict lifts oil, Fed hike looms By Reuters+0.3%
• Aug 31, 2026The Dollar Index falls through a war and a hawkish repricing+10.8%
• May 19, 2026Euro Near One-Month Low Amid Middle East Risks-11.6%
• Mar 21, 2019Ringgit opens eight-months high against US dollar | FMT-1.2%
• Jun 28, 2021Rand reverses dollar gains on the back of hawkish sentiment | Freight News+0.7%