Dollar hits fresh 18-month high as hot inflation boosts Fed hike expectation

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Jun 29, 2023Dollar index hits two-week high as data boosts Fed hike expectations+0.4%
• May 31, 2021Dollar near 2-month high vs yen, U.S. inflation beats expectations | Financial Post-0.2%
• Jun 24, 2026US dollar strengthens to 13-month high on Fed rate hike expectations | Reuters-0.1%
• Aug 26, 2026U.S. data buoys dollar as Fed hike expectations nudged higher+0.4%
• Jun 1, 2026Investors expect US dollar to break higher as Fed battles inflation+1.0%

After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Apr 17, 2023Dollar rebounds on higher expectations for Fed hike in May | IBTimes UK-1.9%
• Jun 17, 2021Dollar surges to two-month high on Fed rate-hike projection-2.4%
• Jul 27, 2024Chinese yuan hits eight-month low with missed inflation data and US dollar rebound | FX Blue-1.0%
• May 1, 2024US dollar modestly higher as sticky inflation persists, yen hits 34-year low+2.6%
• Oct 18, 2022Dollar Appreciation and Inflation | Richmond Fed-0.9%

After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Apr 17, 2023Dollar rebounds on higher expectations for Fed hike in May | IBTimes UK-1.1%
• Jun 17, 2021Dollar surges to two-month high on Fed rate-hike projection-4.4%
• Jul 27, 2024Chinese yuan hits eight-month low with missed inflation data and US dollar rebound | FX Blue-4.5%
• May 1, 2024US dollar modestly higher as sticky inflation persists, yen hits 34-year low+7.6%
• Oct 18, 2022Dollar Appreciation and Inflation | Richmond Fed-1.0%