The Dollar Index falls through a war and a hawkish repricing

After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.

• Apr 21, 2022Canadian dollar adds to recent gains on hawkish BoC outlook - The Globe and Mail-0.6%
• Feb 6, 2024Canadian dollar rebounds as Macklem strikes hawkish tone on rates - The Globe and Mail+5.7%
• Mar 17, 2022Canadian dollar climbs to 2-week high as FX volatility falls - The Globe and Mail+21.1%
• Mar 31, 2026Dovish Fed Repricing Favors Gold - ADM Investor Services+9.6%
• Apr 27, 2017David Rosenberg: Why I’m turning bullish on the Canadian dollar - The Globe and Mail-3.1%

After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Oct 4, 2023Rand falls to lowest level against the dollar in months-3.8%
• Jun 28, 2021Rand reverses dollar gains on the back of hawkish sentiment | Freight News+0.7%
• Jun 19, 2026Dollar index hits 13-month high on hawkish Fed, shaky Middle East outlook-6.4%
• Aug 1, 2023Rupee falls 31 paise to 82.23 against the US dollar in early trade+0.6%
• Sep 29, 2026Fed Rate Hike Bets and US Bond Rout Bolster the Dollar, Hurt Equities and Gold | Investing.com+5.1%

After 359 past neutral macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.4%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Mar 23, 2021Does the US dollar have further to fall?+0.8%
• Oct 28, 2021FX Daily: Hawkish drift | ING THINK+0.6%
• Mar 20, 2026Dollar set for weekly drop as central banks turn hawkish with rising oil prices | Reuters+0.2%
• Apr 22, 2020Forecasts for the loonie and U.S. dollar-0.4%
• Jan 28, 2026Forex Today: Fed delivers hawkish hold, US Dollar remains under pressure+0.4%