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EUR/USD slipped to $1.163, near one-month lows, as traders priced an 80% chance of an ECB hike next month. Eurozone Q1 growth slowed to 0.1% and April inflation reached 3%, while Brent stayed near a four-year high.
Energy-driven inflation and a weaker euro reflect the Middle East supply shock, which supports higher fertilizer and freight costs and keeps feed input costs elevated.
tradingeconomics.comJoana FerreiraMay 19, 2026After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
