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AgMarket.Net's Matt Bennett reports that Covid-19 fears drove volatile, mostly deflationary grain and energy trading in the week to March 20. Crude fell about $27 a barrel over ten sessions, pushing ethanol prices down 22 cents.
Corn was in a sell-off, with some in the industry expecting a 50 to 60 cent drop on ethanol weakness alone.
Lower ethanol prices cut the margin support for corn, and cheaper diesel and fertilizer costs ease farm input pressure, leaving the net bias bearish for corn.
farmprogress.comMatt BennettMar 20, 2020After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 79 past bearish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Crude's sharp drop pushed ethanol prices down and prompted a corn sell-off, with analysts expecting further downside from ethanol weakness alone, an energy-linked demand channel.
Describes crude falling about $27 a barrel over ten sessions on COVID-19 fears, the same demand shock behind the 20 March drop.
