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North West Redwater's Sturgeon refinery in Alberta, Canada's first new refinery since 1984, will start producing about 40,000 barrels a day of diesel by year end. Alberta diesel demand is falling after a recession.
Added diesel supply into a market already in surplus is bearish for diesel prices and for truck-fuel margins relative to crude.
After 79 past bearish macro events, DIESEL moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.