Bloomberg reports that European refiners are running about 25% below capacity in September as COVID-19 cuts jet fuel demand and diesel trades near its weakest in at least nine years. Plant owners in Finland, France and the Netherlands have signaled likely closures.
Weak diesel cracks and lower refinery runs reduce energy-cost pressure on feed and freight, but the story is primarily an oil-market signal with limited direct effect on grain or feed prices.
After 79 past bearish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 54 past neutral macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.8% to +2.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.