
U.S. ultra-low sulfur diesel cash prices slumped as refiners boosted output to escape weak margins on gasoline and jet fuel. Chicago diesel cash prices fell to 34 cents under heating oil futures, the lowest seasonally since at least 2011.
Colonial Pipeline also cut gasoline and diesel volumes on lower demand.
Refiner overproduction of diesel as demand falls pushes regional cash prices lower, cutting fuel costs for trucking and farm operations. Weak diesel margins also reduce the incentive for refiners to keep running, which can limit future supply.
After 79 past bearish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.