
US ultra-low sulfur diesel futures averaged $0.50 a gallon below February 2022 levels as of May, having declined each month since January 2023. Europe replaced most Russian diesel imports, easing supply concerns.
Diesel has fallen below pre-invasion levels, reducing energy and freight costs for feed production and distribution, which supports lower operating costs for feed makers.
After 79 past bearish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 102 past neutral macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -3.3% to +2.5%), and +1.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.