Oil Caught Between a $70 Summer and Growing Surplus Fears

After 54 past neutral macro events, BRENT moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.8% to +2.5%), and +0.6% over 20.

• Sep 30, 2020Europe's Oil Refineries Struggling to Cope With Diesel Glut | Financial Post+3.1%
• Dec 8, 2022Rupee inches up as U.S. yields drop, weak Asian cues cap gains | Financial Post+7.6%
• Apr 10, 2017OPEC's original cut 'just missed paving the road to hell', but extension needed for oil to hit $60: Citi | Financial Post+0.6%
• Mar 15, 2017Will A Fed Rate Hike Boost The Price Of Oil? | Investing.com+0.6%
• Jul 7, 2025Oil prices up; strong demand outweighs surprisingly big OPEC+ output hike | Reuters+2.2%

After 102 past neutral macro events, WTI moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -3.3% to +2.5%), and +1.8% over 20.

• Jan 29, 2025Argentina's Energy Export Surge Quells Fears Over Currency Management | Financial Post-1.5%
• Jul 31, 2019Posthaste: Some oilsands mines breakeven at $10, S&P cuts Canadian GDP forecast and why the Fed is cutting rates - Financial Post-7.6%
• Jul 29, 2026ING Says Dollar to Take Cue from Oil Prices If Fed Holds Rate | Financial Post-4.4%
• Apr 10, 2017OPEC's original cut 'just missed paving the road to hell', but extension needed for oil to hit $60: Citi | Financial Post+0.7%
• Apr 13, 2023BIS - The Changing Nexus Between Commodity Prices And The Dollar: Causes And Implications-4.9%