Palm oil faces a tough path to replacing fossil fuel as gasoil has slumped more than 45% this year, widening palm's premium over diesel to the widest since 2011. The premium exceeded $400 a ton on Sept.
18 for the first time in over nine years.
A wide palm-gasoil spread makes palm biodiesel expensive, pressuring Indonesia's biofuel fund and risking backsliding on B30 and other biodiesel mandates, which would reduce palm demand and weigh on palm prices.
After 51 past bearish macro events, Palm Oil moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.1%), and -1.8% over 20.
After 79 past bearish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 40 past bearish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -4.5% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.