European ultra-low-sulfur diesel margins fell back to 17-year lows, near the level seen in early June. Holiday motoring demand faded, commuter traffic failed to recover, and a second Covid-19 wave in the region looked likely to bring new travel restrictions.
Weaker diesel demand and collapsing margins signal reduced refinery incentive and lower diesel prices, which lowers the cost of fuel and freight for feed operations.
After 79 past bearish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.