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ING analysts examine the risk of a sharp Treasury sell-off, drawing parallels to the 2013 taper tantrum, when rising US yields hit equities and commodities and lifted the dollar. The note explores when the Fed might signal tapering and how asset markets could react.
A taper-driven yield spike would strengthen the dollar and pressure commodity prices, so feed buyers should watch Fed communication on bond purchases.
think.ing.comChris Turner Global Head of Markets, Regional Head of ResearchFeb 22, 2021After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
