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ING reports that carry trades are being rapidly unwound as FX volatility rises, with Fed Chair Powell acknowledging slower inflation progress and hinting at rate cut delays. The Brazilian real, Mexican peso, Indonesian rupiah and Polish zloty have dropped between 2% and 3.1% since the start of the week.
The dollar has been supported by the shift in rate expectations.
A sharp fall in the real and peso raises the cost of imported inputs for Latin American producers and can push them to sell soybeans, corn and meal faster in dollar terms, which pressures export prices.
think.ing.comFrancesco Pesole, Chris TurnerApr 17, 2024After 541 past macro events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 456 past macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
