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ING says the dollar keeps grinding higher, supported by repricing of the long-term Fed funds rate, high oil prices and weakness in the European and Chinese economies. The dollar has rallied about 7% from its mid-July low.
Sustained dollar strength lowers the US dollar value of commodities priced in weaker currencies and raises import costs for feed buyers in Europe and Asia, weighing on US export demand.
think.ing.comChris Turner, Francesco Pesole, Frantisek TaborskySep 28, 2023After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
