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ING's daily FX note reports that strong US January jobs data pushed the dollar higher and cut the odds of a March Fed rate cut to about 20%. ING expects the first Fed cut in May and notes that the upcoming ISM services data is expected to rise.
A firmer dollar on delayed Fed easing tends to pressure dollar-priced commodities and emerging-market currencies, which can weigh on feed grain and meal prices.
think.ing.comChris Turner, Frantisek Taborsky, Francesco PesoleFeb 5, 2024After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
