Chicago soybeans fell more than 3.5% on Monday after weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data suggested lower demand for U.S. farm goods. The People's Bank of China cut key interest rates, raising global recession concerns.
Corn and wheat also declined.
Signs of weaker Chinese demand, the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, pressure export expectations and futures prices. Forecasts of rain for parched U.S. crops added to the downward pressure.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 69 past bearish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -2.6% to +0.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Weak Chinese economic data and the PBOC rate cut raised recession and lower-demand fears, driving a sharp drop in Chicago soybeans on Monday.