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StoneX's weekly FX outlook for Brazil says Lula's unexpected win in the presidential runoff triggered a sharp reversal in positioning, which had favored Flávio Bolsonaro. The BRL posted its largest daily depreciation since 2002 and its largest weekly fall since 2008, and expectations of expansionist fiscal policy under Lula's fourth term keep pressure on the currency.
A weaker real makes Brazilian soybeans, corn and meal cheaper in dollar terms, which tends to encourage export selling and weigh on global prices. Fiscal risk and Selic policy will also shape Brazil's farm financing costs and export competitiveness.
stonex.comLeonel MattosNov 2, 2026After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
