Brazil FX: What’s driving the BRL’s underperformance?

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Jul 2, 2024Understanding the Storm in Brazilian Markets-2.8%
• Mar 6, 2020Brazil: Covid-19’s waves begin to wash up on LatAm’s shores - Euromoney+4.4%
• Apr 29, 2020Decline in Brazil’s Real Underscores Need for Hedging-0.0%
• Nov 29, 2024What is happening to BRL as the Brazilian Real collapses against the US Dollar+1.7%
• Aug 30, 2024Political headwinds continue to drive LatAm FX uncertainty - Euromoney-0.8%

After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Apr 29, 2020Decline in Brazil’s Real Underscores Need for Hedging+1.1%
• Nov 29, 2024What is happening to BRL as the Brazilian Real collapses against the US Dollar-1.3%
• Nov 12, 2024Brazil’s real weakens, interest rates climb under Trump effect-1.9%
• Dec 19, 2024Why Brazil’s currency is plunging+7.4%
• Jan 23, 2024Brazil's real weakens past 5.00 per dollar for 1st time since November-0.4%

After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Apr 16, 2024What's behind the USD's bullish break out? | MUFG EMEA+0.2%
• Jan 23, 2024Brazil's real weakens past 5.00 per dollar for 1st time since November-2.5%
• Jan 31, 2024User | chroniclejournal.com - USD/BRL forecast as the Fed and Brazil Central Bank diverge-1.6%
• Mar 28, 2019No, Brazil's Currency Is Not Going To R$5 If Pension Reform Fails+1.3%
• Sep 28, 2022Why is the US dollar so strong, and what does it mean?-1.7%