User | chroniclejournal.com - USD/BRL forecast as the Fed and Brazil Central Bank diverge

After 92 past neutral macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Mar 12, 2021FX Daily: Brazilian central bank’s line in the sand | ING THINK-0.3%
• Mar 27, 2025Brazil's central bank signals need for higher rates for longer-0.7%
• Dec 12, 2023USDBRL should reflect Brazil's GDP, employment and services in the US, and data for China-0.1%
• Sep 26, 2022Brazil makes first FX intervention of the year - Central Banking+3.1%
• Dec 8, 2021Brazil central bank makes 150 bps interest rate hike, signals another+0.7%

After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Mar 4, 2020Brazil central bank to intervene in FX swaps market on Thursday-2.2%
• May 14, 2019Brazil's Real slides past 4.00 to the US dollar as China/US trade dispute escalates — MercoPress+5.2%
• Jun 27, 2023Brazil central bank minutes raise possibility of August rate cut | Reuters+2.7%
• Mar 18, 2020Brazil central bank wades into FX, bond markets but real slump accelerates | Financial Post+7.6%
• Oct 31, 2022What Does A Central Bank Pivot Mean For Commodity Prices? | FXEmpire+4.6%

After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Mar 4, 2020Brazil central bank to intervene in FX swaps market on Thursday+1.1%
• Nov 29, 2024What is happening to BRL as the Brazilian Real collapses against the US Dollar+1.1%
• Aug 13, 2024Brazil's central bank had no reason to intervene in FX amid 'accelerated weakening'-1.2%
• May 14, 2019Brazil's Real slides past 4.00 to the US dollar as China/US trade dispute escalates — MercoPress+7.0%
• Jun 27, 2023Brazil central bank minutes raise possibility of August rate cut | Reuters-7.9%