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The ING FX note says USD/BRL is finding a line in the sand around 5.80-5.90 after a step-up in central bank FX intervention. The market expects a rate hike of 50 basis points or more at the coming meeting, and the euro held support after the ECB's front-loaded PEPP announcement.
Central bank intervention and rate expectations shape the real's path, which affects the dollar cost of Brazilian soy and corn exports and so feed grain pricing.
think.ing.comChris TurnerMar 12, 2021After 92 past neutral macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
