
Brazilian private economists surveyed by the central bank still expect the Selic rate to be held at 15% through December 2025, with a first cut to 14.75% in January 2026. The central bank raised rates by 25 basis points earlier in June and signaled a pause at its late July meeting.
Higher-for-longer interest rates raise financing costs for Brazilian feed mills, poultry and pork integrators, and farm credit, which can slow herd and flock expansion.
After 92 past neutral macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.