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ING analysts argue one more rate cut by Brazil's central bank would bring the Selic rate to a neutral level, so further cuts would need positive economic data to be justified. They also note Brazilian market spreads to the US look rich compared with history, while Mexican spreads look more attractive.
Brazilian interest-rate policy shapes the real's direction and the cost of capital for Brazilian farms and exporters. Slower future cuts would limit currency weakness and domestic feed-demand support.
think.ing.comPadhraic Garvey, CFAJan 29, 2024After 92 past neutral macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
