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FXEmpire previews a week of expected 75 basis-point rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, framing them as a trade-off between tightening and recession risk. It argues that central bank policy shifts will drive commodity market moves.
Aggressive rate hikes strengthen the dollar and raise recession risk, which together tend to pressure demand-sensitive commodities and feed prices.
fxempire.comPhil CarrOct 31, 2022After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
