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A columnist reviews how world events affect grain markets, noting that global grain ending stocks and stocks-to-use ratios are slowly rising, signaling a building inventory surplus. He highlights that Canadian canola is the exception, with falling stocks due to strong exports and crush demand.
He also flags uncertainty from U.S. trade policy under the new administration.
A building global grain surplus is bearish for prices, while tight canola stocks support canola values. Trade policy uncertainty adds volatility risk for feed grain and meal pricing.
grainews.caBrian WittalJan 27, 2017Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
