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Commodity futures fell over the two weeks before July 7, 2022, as fund groups took profits after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to fight inflation. Recession fears and concerns about Chinese growth led traders to sell commodity positions broadly, and grain prices had returned to levels from the prior summer.
Higher rates and recession risk reduce speculative demand for commodities, so prices may stay under pressure unless inflation or supply concerns return to draw fund money back in.
farmprogress.comNaomi BlohmJul 7, 2022After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 69 past bearish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -2.6% to +0.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Broad commodity selloff on Fed tightening and recession fears drove fund profit-taking across commodities including wheat.
