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Saxo's weekly commodity review says Covid-19 lockdowns have cut oil demand by an estimated 25 million barrels per day. Storage concerns pushed a late-week rally on hopes of an emergency production cut among OPEC and non-OPEC producers.
Sugar and corn fell with oil through the biofuel link, while wheat gained on hoarding of staples.
Crude's slump weakens the ethanol and biofuel link that supports corn and sugar, while a possible production cut would be the main upside risk to energy and oil-linked feed-cost sentiment.
home.saxoOle HansenMar 20, 2020After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 57 past bullish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.7%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Lockdowns cut oil demand by an estimated 25 million barrels per day, and storage concerns weighed on prices despite hopes of an emergency production cut.
Collapsing oil demand and falling crude dragged corn lower through the biofuel link, adding to selling pressure.
Weekly review quantifies a lockdown-driven 25 mb/d demand loss and storage concerns, explaining the week's slide, though it also notes a late rally.
Estimates lockdowns cut oil demand by about 25 million bpd, a demand-side driver of the price collapse.
