
Wells Fargo says commodities are unlikely to enter a bull market, expecting oversupply and range-bound prices over the next five to ten years. The bank notes that commodity investment assets reached $311 billion at end-2017.
A bearish multi-year outlook on commodities caps the upside case for feed grain and oilseed prices despite a weaker dollar.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.