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Saxo's weekly commodity commentary says the coronavirus slowdown spread from pro-cyclical commodities to the wider market, with crude oil hit hardest. Gold rallied to its biggest weekly gain since 2009 as a safe haven after an emergency 50bp Fed cut.
Weaker crude and pro-cyclical demand lower energy-linked input costs and bias feed markets lower, while the broad risk-off move pressures grain and oilseed prices.
home.saxoOle HansenFeb 28, 2020After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
