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The Fed cut rates by 25bp but trimmed its 2025 outlook to about 50bp of cuts from 100bp previously. Crude oil edged lower as the dollar surged and the EIA reported a smaller-than-expected inventory draw of 0.9m barrels for the week ended December 13.
Reduced rate-cut expectations lift the dollar and weigh on commodities broadly, while the smaller crude draw adds bearish pressure to energy. Feed costs that track energy and freight may ease only modestly from these moves.
think.ing.comEwa Manthey, Warren PattersonDec 19, 2024After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
