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Brent settled about 1.6% lower as rising Treasury yields and dollar strength weighed on oil. OPEC output rose about 50 kbbl/d month on month in September to 27.97 mb/d, led by Nigeria, while Iranian output eased slightly.
Attention is on Northern Iraqi flows through the Ceyhan pipeline, which Turkey said could resume but Iraq disputed.
A stronger dollar and higher yields pressure energy and other commodity prices, while steady OPEC supply limits upside. Resumed Iraqi exports would add supply and weigh further on crude, which feeds into diesel and biofuel costs.
think.ing.comWarren Patterson, Ewa MantheyOct 3, 2023After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Rising Treasury yields and dollar strength weighed on Brent on Oct 3, and OPEC output rose.
