
The Fed left US rates unchanged and signalled they would likely stay on hold until tariff effects are clearer, lifting the dollar and pressuring commodities. EIA data showed US crude stocks fell 2.03m barrels, leaving them at their lowest since March, while jet fuel demand hit its highest since 2019.
A firmer dollar and delayed rate cuts weigh on dollar-denominated commodities, while tight US crude and jet fuel demand support energy prices.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.