
Hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, indicating possible rate increases in July and September, weighed on the commodity complex. The EIA reported a sharp weekly drop in U.S. commercial crude inventories to 453.7 million barrels, though Cushing stocks rose to their highest since June 2021.
Higher rate expectations strengthen the dollar and pressure commodity prices, partly offsetting the supportive crude inventory draw that lifted energy prices.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 102 past neutral macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -3.3% to +2.5%), and +1.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.