ING's Commodities Feed, republished by Investing.com, says Powell's Jackson Hole speech boosted most risk assets, including parts of commodities. Markets priced over 85% odds of a 25bp September cut, up from about 72% before the speech.
Oil rose almost 2.9% last week as Russia-Ukraine ceasefire hopes faded, and secondary US tariffs on India for Russian oil looked set for 27 August.
Expected Fed easing weakens the dollar, supporting commodity prices, while the India tariff and sanctions threat add supply risk to crude and energy costs.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.