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ING's Commodities Feed says Fed Chair Powell's largely dovish Jackson Hole speech boosted most risk assets, including parts of commodities. Markets priced over 85% odds of a September 25bp cut, up from about 72% before the speech.
Oil rose almost 2.9% last week amid uncertainty over a Russia-Ukraine deal and possible tougher sanctions, with US secondary tariffs on India set for 27 August.
Lower US rate expectations weaken the dollar, which tends to support dollar-denominated commodity prices. Possible sanctions and secondary tariffs on Russian oil add supply risk to crude and energy-linked feed costs.
think.ing.comWarren Patterson, Ewa MantheySep 1, 2025After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
