
Falling wheat and energy prices have raised concern about a global recession after food prices surged earlier. The World Bank expects commodity prices to fall 21% in 2023 year on year, and its deputy chief economist said slower growth rather than a looming recession is driving the decline.
Broad commodity price declines and weaker global growth expectations point to softer grain and energy input costs for feed producers.
After 69 past bearish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -2.6% to +0.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.