WCU: Peak recession fears bring commodities down to earth

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Sep 27, 2022Dollar rally, recession fears wreak havoc on commodities-1.1%
• Sep 26, 2022Commodity prices down last week amid hawkish monetary policies, recession fears+0.2%
• Aug 21, 2019Weekly Pricing Pulse: Recession worries undercut commodity prices+0.3%
• Jun 25, 2018COT Dollar strength and trade fears trigger big changes across forex and commodities | Saxo-0.0%
• Jul 11, 2022EMERGING MARKETS-Colombian and Chilean pesos hit all-time-lows on commodity falls, recession fears+0.8%

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Sep 26, 2022Commodity prices down last week amid hawkish monetary policies, recession fears+1.0%
• Jun 9, 2023Falling commodity prices stoke fear of global recession-0.9%
• Apr 4, 2025Commodities weekly: Tariff-led recession pain triggers sharp reversal | Saxo Bank Switzerland-10.2%
• Aug 21, 2019Weekly Pricing Pulse: Recession worries undercut commodity prices-2.2%
• Jul 11, 2022EMERGING MARKETS-Colombian and Chilean pesos hit all-time-lows on commodity falls, recession fears-6.8%